Weekly Global Insights Report - Week Ending 23rd March 2025

Date: 24th March 2025

Author(s): Custodia Intelligence Team

Report Reference: CIR-230325

Providing Actionable Intelligence for Business Leaders, Policymakers, and Security Professionals

Custodia Global Risk Management

1. Executive Summary

Overview: This week presents a significant juncture in global risk dynamics, characterised by diplomatic posturing, regional flare-ups, and increasingly sophisticated cyber threat landscapes. The Ukraine conflict has entered a temporary pause, offering a fragile window for diplomacy but revealing deep fractures between Western allies. Meanwhile, a devastating resurgence of hostilities in Gaza has triggered humanitarian and political fallout. In Asia-Pacific, efforts at trilateral cooperation between China, Japan, and South Korea suggest potential recalibration amidst mounting global uncertainty. Latin America and Africa continue to exhibit economic and security fragility, while cyber threats globally remain acute and disruptive.

Key Insights:

• Ukraine Conflict: A U.S.-brokered 30-day ceasefire marks a tactical shift, but is not an end to the conflict. The divergence between U.S. and EU postures reveals alliance fractures.

• Middle East: Israeli military operations in Gaza have resumed with intensity, disrupting ceasefire agreements and amplifying humanitarian concerns.

• Asia-Pacific Diplomacy: China, Japan, and South Korea agreed to restart trilateral summits, signalling possible alignment on trade, security, and demographic challenges.

• Cyber Threat Intelligence: A wave of ransomware attacks and advanced persistent threats (APT) campaigns have targeted critical infrastructure across North America and Europe.

Strategic Takeaway:

• Businesses and governments must prepare for a period of geopolitical recalibration, cyber vulnerability, and persistent risk volatility.

2. Global Risk Overview

This week’s global landscape has entered a state of fragile recalibration, with ceasefires being tested, power realignments underway, and security threats intensifying in both conventional and digital domains. The trajectory of risk remains multidimensional—stretching beyond military threats into financial markets, political alignment, humanitarian strain, and environmental volatility.

Europe is navigating both tactical conflict pauses and strategic divergences between allies, challenging the cohesion of NATO and the EU.

The Middle East is witnessing renewed violence and humanitarian disaster amid the collapse of ceasefire arrangements, while maritime security is further destabilised by Iranian naval posturing.

Asia-Pacific reflects a complex intersection of diplomacy, deterrence, and cyber espionage—underscored by trilateral dialogue juxtaposed with aggressive signalling from North Korea and coordinated cyber intrusions.

The Americas face a dual burden of institutional fragility and transnational criminal escalation. Cartel activities, economic unrest, and digital fraud threats require urgent multilateral and corporate attention.

Cyber threats remain at the centre of global disruption, with critical infrastructure, finance, and defence sectors in advanced economies increasingly targeted by state-backed threat actors.

Strategically, the global risk environment is marked by the breakdown of established norms, increasing unpredictability of alliances, and the weaponisation of non-kinetic domains. Organisations should now treat cyber and geopolitical risks as converging, not siloed, imperatives for action.

3. Regional Risk Analysis

Europe (Ukraine Conflict, Strategic Divergence & Energy Security)

Key Developments:

• On 18 March, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed a 30-day halt on attacks targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to. Ukrainian President Zelensky welcomed the reprieve as a tactical window but expressed frustration over Kyiv's exclusion from direct talks. This agreement does not constitute a comprehensive ceasefire, as broader hostilities continue.

• European officials, particularly in Germany and Poland, reacted with concern, citing the precedent of bilateral agreements that undermine EU and NATO coordination.

• During the ceasefire, Russian forces reportedly repositioned and reinforced their units near Donetsk and Luhansk, fortifying trenches and deploying electronic warfare systems.

• Simultaneously, Russia escalated disinformation campaigns in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, targeting public sentiment and attempting to erode NATO credibility.

• Intelligence sources indicate an uptick in covert logistical movements, suggesting that the ceasefire is being used to prepare for a potential new offensive.

Implications & Business Impact:

• While the ceasefire eased immediate threats to Ukraine’s power grid, businesses in the region continue to face infrastructure vulnerability and policy uncertainty.

• EU cohesion is under renewed strain as member states diverge in their diplomatic and security approaches toward Russia.

• The continued deployment of Russian hybrid tactics—including information warfare, cyber intrusion, and economic manipulation—poses sustained risks to European governance structures and commercial operations.

Forecast:

• Without formal Ukrainian participation in long-term negotiations, the ceasefire remains fragile and likely temporary.

• NATO’s presence in the region may increase, not only militarily but also through cyber defence and infrastructure resilience programmes.

• Expect Russia to exploit pauses in conflict for long-term strategic positioning and grey-zone operations.

Risk Level: High

Middle East (Gaza Escalation, Political Fallout & Maritime Security)

Key Developments:

• On 18 March, Israeli forces launched a significant wave of airstrikes on Gaza, targeting Hamas infrastructure and key militant positions. The strikes resulted in over 400 casualties, including a high proportion of civilians, according to the Palestinian Health Authority, and marked the formal collapse of the fragile ceasefire agreed in January.

• The ceasefire agreed in January collapsed following a combination of renewed rocket fire from Hamas into Israeli territory and Israel’s subsequent airstrikes. Regional actors (Egypt, Qatar, Jordan) urged restraint while condemning the civilian toll.

• Iranian naval activity increased near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting alerts from U.S. CENTCOM.

Implications & Business Impact:

• Oil futures rose by 4% on fears of disruption in the Persian Gulf.

• Increased regional instability could lead to logistics bottlenecks in key trade corridors.

Forecast:

• Expect international humanitarian missions to expand; however, meaningful diplomatic resolution remains unlikely in Q2 2025.

Risk Level: High

Asia-Pacific (Trilateral Dialogue, Trade Positioning & Cyber Escalation)

Key Developments:

• On 21 March, foreign ministers from China, Japan, and South Korea held their first formal talks in 18 months, agreeing to resume trilateral summits in H1 2025.

• North Korea launched a short-range missile test as a signal to summit attendees, prompting condemnation from Seoul and Tokyo.

• Chinese-linked APT groups are believed responsible for attacks on Japanese defence contractors and South Korean financial systems.

Implications & Business Impact:

• Opportunities may arise for new regional trade blocs or security cooperation frameworks.

• Multinationals should prepare for cyber spill-over effects in critical sectors including logistics, finance, and defence.

Forecast:

• Progress toward trilateral alignment may be slow and symbolic, but improved communications will reduce miscalculation risks.

Risk Level: Medium-High

Americas (Organised Crime, Political Instability & Financial Risks)

Key Developments:

• Mexico’s government deployed special units to counter a wave of cartel violence in Monterrey and Guadalajara.

• In Argentina, nationwide strikes over inflation and IMF conditionalities paralysed logistics and commerce for two days.

• U.S. intelligence reports suggest increased cartel-linked cyber-enabled fraud targeting financial institutions in Texas and Florida.

Implications & Business Impact:

• Travel advisories and insurance premiums have risen across northern Mexico.

• Financial institutions in Latin America and the southern U.S. face elevated compliance and fraud risks.

Forecast:

• Without structural reforms, cartel violence and economic unrest will intensify.

Risk Level: High

4. Key Incident Breakdown

Date	Location	Incident Type	Summary	Risk Level
20 Mar	Ukraine/Russia	Ceasefire Announcement	Trump-Putin 30-day ceasefire excluding Ukraine announced; EU divisions exposed.	High
21 Mar	Gaza	Military Strike	Israeli airstrikes kill over 400; ceasefire collapsed on 18 March; humanitarian crisis escalating rapidly.	High
22 Mar	Asia-Pacific	Trilateral Diplomacy	China, Japan, and South Korea agree to restart trilateral summits in 2025.	Medium-High
22 Mar	Argentina	Civil Unrest	Mass protests and transport strikes disrupt key logistics infrastructure.	High

5. Strategic Implications & Business Risk Mitigation

• Energy & Supply Chains: Companies with exposure to European and Middle Eastern markets should diversify routes and invest in forward procurement.

• Cybersecurity: Financial and critical infrastructure sectors should enhance monitoring for APT-style attacks and ransomware.

• Executive Protection: Corporates operating in LATAM must reassess duty-of-care protocols and enhance resilience against criminal targeting.

• Political Engagement: Stakeholders in Asia should monitor diplomatic shifts that could alter trade and investment frameworks.

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• Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd

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• Email: info@custodia.co.uk

Disclaimer

This document is confidential and intended solely for the recipient. It contains proprietary intelligence and analysis by Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd. The information within is gathered from reliable sources; however, no guarantee of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness is provided. Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on this report. Redistribution, reproduction, or dissemination without written consent is strictly prohibited.