Geopolitical & Security Insights – Week Ending 16th February 2025
📅 Date: 17th February 2025✍
Author(s): Custodia Intelligence Team
Report Reference: CIR-160225
🌍 Providing Actionable Intelligence for Business Leaders, Policymakers, and Security Professionals
1. Executive Summary
Overview: This week’s intelligence highlights major geopolitical shifts, heightened security threats, and increasing economic instability across multiple regions. Russia’s latest military offensive in Ukraine has intensified, with heavy bombardments on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and supply corridors. NATO allies are weighing more aggressive military aid options, increasing the risk of direct confrontation. The Middle East remains volatile, with escalating Red Sea attacks disrupting trade. In Africa, jihadist expansion in the Sahel continues, worsening regional instability. Latin American cartel activity is spilling over into financial crime, and in Asia-Pacific, military tensions and cyber threats are reaching critical levels.
Key Insights:
Ukraine Conflict: Russia has expanded precision strikes targeting critical infrastructure, increasing energy security concerns in Europe.
Red Sea Maritime Security: Attacks on commercial ships have increased, forcing global shipping companies to reroute and absorb higher costs.
Sahel Insurgencies: ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates have expanded operations into new territories, heightening business and security risks.
Latin American Cartels: Drug trafficking groups have begun using crypto-based laundering schemes, increasing compliance risks for financial firms.
Asia-Pacific Cyber & Military Tensions: State-backed hacking groups have escalated attacks on financial and government systems.
Strategic Takeaway: Corporations and policymakers should update security strategies, review regional investment risks, and reinforce cyber resilience to counter emerging threats in Ukraine, the Red Sea, Latin America, and the Indo-Pacific.
2. Global Risk Overview
Africa (Terrorism, Political Instability & Economic Risks)
Key Developments:
Jihadist groups are increasing their operational footprint across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, threatening key business corridors.
Economic distress in Nigeria and South Africa is deepening, raising foreign investment concerns.
Sudan’s internal conflict is worsening, affecting regional trade and energy markets.
Implications & Business Impact:
Firms operating in West Africa should enhance regional security protocols.
Mining and energy sector disruptions could drive up commodity prices globally.
Sudan’s instability is affecting East African trade corridors.
Forecast:
Expect cross-border instability to worsen, necessitating stronger international counterterrorism cooperation.
Regional protests over economic mismanagement could disrupt investment climates.
⚠ Risk Level: High
Americas (Organised Crime, Political Unrest, Economic Volatility)
Key Developments:
Cartel warfare in Mexico is shifting toward urban centers, increasing business security risks.
Argentina faces a financial collapse, raising the risk of social unrest.
Venezuela’s government is tightening control over opposition figures.
Implications & Business Impact:
Corporations should reassess supply chain exposure to crime-ridden logistics hubs.
Investment volatility in Latin America is at its highest levels in five years.
Political risks in Venezuela may impact energy markets.
Forecast:
Cartel violence will continue spilling into legal industries, necessitating stronger corporate risk measures.
Argentina’s political landscape is unstable, raising concern over potential capital flight.
⚠ Risk Level: High
Asia-Pacific (Cyber Threats, Economic Tensions, Military Risks)
Key Developments:
China has intensified military air incursions near Taiwan, raising tensions with the US and Japan.
North Korea has conducted new missile tests, increasing regional instability.
Cyberattacks targeting Western financial institutions have increased significantly.
Implications & Business Impact:
Cybersecurity concerns for multinational corporations are at critical levels.
Supply chain disruptions related to Chinese-US trade disputes could reshape global logistics strategies.
Investors in semiconductor industries face increasing market volatility.
Forecast:
China’s military posturing is likely to persist, increasing pressure on Taiwan.
Cybersecurity threats will become a primary concern for corporate risk officers.
⚠ Risk Level: Medium-High
3. Key Incident Breakdown
Date | Location | Incident Type | Summary | Risk Level |
10 Feb | Ukraine | Missile Strikes | Russia launches heavy missile and drone barrages targeting Kyiv and Kharkiv, disrupting civilian infrastructure and military supply lines. | High |
11 Feb | Red Sea | Maritime Security | Houthi militias attack two commercial cargo ships, escalating tensions and disrupting trade. | High |
12 Feb | Mexico | Cartel Violence | Armed clashes between cartels and security forces result in multiple fatalities, with spillover effects on logistics and trade corridors. | High |
14 Feb | Taiwan Strait | Military Maneuvers | China conducts live-fire naval exercises in disputed waters, warning foreign forces against "interference." | Medium-High |
6. Expert Consultation
Take Action Now:
Businesses, policymakers, and security professionals must remain vigilant and adapt to emerging threats. Custodia Intelligence offers tailored risk assessments, intelligence briefings, and strategic consultation to help organisations stay ahead of evolving global security risks.
📩 For expert consultation and tailored intelligence briefings, contact us:
Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd
Website: www.custodia.co.uk
Email: info@custodia.co.uk
7. Disclaimer
Confidentiality & Disclaimer Notice
This document is confidential and intended solely for the recipient. It contains proprietary intelligence and analysis by Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd. The information within is gathered from reliable sources; however, no guarantee of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness is provided. Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on this report. Redistribution, reproduction, or dissemination without written consent is strictly prohibited.
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