Geopolitical & Security Insights – Week Ending 23rd February 2025
Date: 24th February 2025
Author(s): Custodia Intelligence Team
Report Reference: CIR-230225
Providing Actionable Intelligence for Business Leaders, Policymakers, and Security Professionals
1. Executive Summary
Overview: This week’s intelligence highlights critical geopolitical escalations, security threats, and global economic uncertainties. In Europe, Ukraine has intensified counter-offensive efforts in response to Russia’s continued air and ground attacks. NATO’s latest defence meeting indicates potential military aid expansions, further straining Western-Russian diplomatic relations. In the Middle East, maritime security risks remain high as Red Sea shipping continues to face Houthi militant attacks, forcing logistical adjustments across global trade networks. Latin America has witnessed a surge in cartel violence, cyber-enabled financial crimes, and economic instability across key economies. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific tensions continue to rise as China advances military exercises near Taiwan and cyber threats against Western businesses increase in scale and sophistication.
Key Insights:
Ukraine Conflict: Kyiv is launching new counter-offensives as NATO discusses potential deployments of high-tech weaponry to deter further Russian advancements.
Red Sea Maritime Security: Shipping insurance costs have surged by 270% as major shipping firms reroute via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, causing global trade delays.
Sahel Insurgencies: Militant activity has expanded across West Africa, with cross-border attacks affecting key trade routes.
Latin American Cartels: Organised crime groups leverage ransomware and digital extortion tactics, increasing cybersecurity risks for financial institutions.
Asia-Pacific Geopolitical Tensions: China’s naval and air drills near Taiwan are at their highest levels since 2022, raising regional security concerns.
Strategic Takeaway: Global businesses should reassess supply chain dependencies, monitor cybersecurity risks, and prepare for economic volatility linked to increasing geopolitical instability.
2. Global Risk Overview
Africa (Terrorism, Political Instability & Economic Risks)
📍 Key Developments:
Cross-border insurgencies are destabilizing security conditions across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
Sudan’s military factions continue clashing, worsening humanitarian conditions and regional trade disruptions.
Economic decline in South Africa is affecting investor confidence, increasing capital outflows from the region.
📊 Implications & Business Impact:
Increased security and travel risks for businesses operating in West and Central Africa.
Potential disruptions in mining and energy supply chains.
Regional economic instability could deter foreign direct investment.
🔍 Forecast:
Terrorist expansion across the Sahel region will continue, pressuring local governments and security alliances.
Sudan’s conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the near term, leading to potential Western interventions.
⚠ Risk Level: High
Americas (Organised Crime, Political Unrest, Economic Volatility)
📍 Key Developments:
Mexico’s cartel-related homicides have risen by 15%, affecting border trade and security conditions.
Argentina’s economic collapse is leading to mass protests and potential state interventions.
Venezuela’s government is implementing stricter controls on foreign businesses amid ongoing economic pressures.
📊 Implications & Business Impact:
Companies operating in Mexico’s logistics and manufacturing sectors face heightened security risks.
Argentina’s economic turmoil could impact regional investment strategies.
Venezuela’s policies may deter further foreign business engagement.
🔍 Forecast:
Cartel violence will continue expanding beyond Mexico into Central America.
Argentina’s economy is expected to experience further inflationary pressures.
⚠ Risk Level: High
Asia-Pacific (Cyber Threats, Economic Tensions, Military Risks)
📍 Key Developments:
China’s latest military drills near Taiwan have included simulated invasion scenarios, escalating tensions.
Japan and Australia have signed new defence cooperation agreements to counter growing regional threats.
State-backed cyberattacks targeting U.S. and European companies have doubled over the past six months.
📊 Implications & Business Impact:
Cybersecurity risks for global enterprises remain critically high.
Geopolitical instability may disrupt semiconductor and tech supply chains.
Companies relying on Asia-Pacific trade must anticipate regulatory and tariff shifts.
🔍 Forecast:
China’s regional assertiveness is expected to grow, prompting further U.S. and allied responses.
Cyber operations will increasingly target key sectors, including finance, energy, and logistics.
⚠ Risk Level: Medium-High
3. Key Incident Breakdown
Date | Location | Incident Type | Summary | Risk Level |
17 Feb | Ukraine | Missile Strikes | Russia launched its largest air assault in months, targeting Ukrainian defence infrastructure. | High |
18 Feb | Red Sea | Maritime Security | Two commercial oil tankers were attacked by Houthi militias, increasing global energy disruptions. | High |
18 Feb | Riyadh, Saudi Arabia | Diplomatic Talks | U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in a high-profile summit to restore diplomatic relations, excluding Ukraine from peace negotiations. | High |
19 Feb | Mexico | Cartel Violence | Clashes between rival cartels resulted in 30+ fatalities, impacting security in key trade corridors. | High |
20 Feb | Uvira, DRC | Armed Clashes | The FARDC and Wazalendo forces engaged in heavy fighting, displacing up to 15,000 civilians into Burundi. | High |
21 Feb | Taiwan Strait | Military Maneuvers | China conducted warplane incursions and naval blockade drills, escalating tensions with Taiwan and the U.S. | Medium-High |
22 Feb | Australian Coast | Maritime Exercises | Australia confronted China over live-fire naval drills conducted without prior notification, raising regional security concerns. | Medium |
23 Feb | West Bank | Military Operations | Israel expanded ‘Iron Wall’ operations, deploying tanks and targeting militant infrastructure, impacting over 500,000 Palestinians. | High |
6. Expert Consultation
💡 Take Action Now:
Businesses, policymakers, and security professionals must remain vigilant and adapt to emerging threats. Custodia Intelligence offers tailored risk assessments, intelligence briefings, and strategic consultation to help organisations stay ahead of evolving global security risks.
📩 For expert consultation and tailored intelligence briefings, contact us:
Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd
Website: www.custodia.co.uk
Email: info@custodia.co.uk
7. Disclaimer
Confidentiality & Disclaimer Notice
This document is confidential and intended solely for the recipient. It contains proprietary intelligence and analysis by Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd. The information within is gathered from reliable sources; however, no guarantee of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness is provided. Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on this report. Redistribution, reproduction, or dissemination without written consent is strictly prohibited.
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