Weekly Global Insights Report - Geopolitical Risk Update – Week Ending 15 June 2025
- Custodia
- Jun 16
- 8 min read
Date: 16 June 2025
Author(s): Custodia Intelligence Team
Report Reference: CIR-150625
Providing Actionable Intelligence for Business Leaders, Policymakers, and Security Professionals
1. Executive Summary
This geopolitical-risk-update highlights escalating conflict in the Middle East, growing unrest in Eastern Europe, and complex operational challenges worldwide. Between 9 and 15 June 2025, the international security environment deteriorated across multiple axes. The Israeli–Iranian confrontation escalated from shadow conflict to direct military engagement, with strategic implications for regional stability and energy markets. Ukraine experienced one of the deadliest bombardments this year while simultaneously facing domestic protest movements, signalling a dual-front challenge of external warfare and internal political strain.
Elsewhere, China ramped up military posturing in the Taiwan Strait, while protests in the United States and digital interference across Europe reflected deepening instability in democratic states. Environmental and health threats, including cholera outbreaks and heatwaves, complicated aid and commercial operations. This report assesses the cumulative strategic outlook and presents mitigation strategies for clients operating in high-risk regions.
2. Global Risk Overview
The global operating environment continues to be shaped by an increase in hybrid threats and regional militarisation. Armed state conflict is converging with cyber warfare, disinformation, and domestic political unrest. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and the subsequent missile retaliation by Iran represent a dramatic escalation that could reshape MENA security dynamics. In parallel, the global response capacity of states is stretched by concurrent environmental stressors and economic instability.
Natural disasters, disease outbreaks, and infrastructure vulnerabilities are further disrupting business continuity and humanitarian operations. Companies with assets in high-risk zones must consider broader threat vectors, including cyber disruptions, supply chain interference, and legal or regulatory exposure tied to civil unrest and cross-border retaliation.
3. Regional Risk Analysis - Geopolitical Risk Update
Middle East (Israel, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon)
Israeli airstrikes on 13–14 June targeted Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure in Isfahan and Natanz, provoking retaliatory drone and missile barrages on Israeli cities. This marks a significant shift from indirect confrontation to state-on-state escalation, raising serious concerns over regional war and international energy security. The IAEA expressed alarm over strikes near monitored nuclear facilities. In parallel, Israeli strikes continued in southern Lebanon and Gaza, maintaining multi-front military pressure.
The aviation sector experienced immediate disruption as several international carriers suspended flights to Tel Aviv. Global oil prices surged past $91 per barrel in anticipation of prolonged instability. The cyber threat landscape also evolved, with Iranian-linked cyber actors reportedly probing Israeli and US critical infrastructure.
Outlook: Expect regional actors to retaliate through asymmetrical means including cyberattacks and proxy warfare. Foreign operations in MENA, particularly energy, aviation, and logistics, face acute near-term threats.
Risk Level: Very High
Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Russia, NATO)
Ukraine endured a coordinated aerial assault on 11 June, with Russian forces targeting Kharkiv and surrounding oblasts, resulting in at least nine fatalities and widespread infrastructure damage. Simultaneously, anti-conscription protests in Kyiv and Lviv escalated into violent clashes with the National Guard. The dual challenge of kinetic warfare and political unrest suggests deepening societal fatigue.
NATO reaffirmed its military commitment to Ukraine, but gaps in civil preparedness are widening. The intersection of external bombardment and internal dissent poses long-term governance risks.
Outlook: Ukraine’s strategic resilience is at risk. Businesses and aid groups should prepare for restricted access to eastern regions and monitor local sentiment to avoid entanglement in protest activity.
Risk Level: High
Central & Western Europe (France, Germany, EU)
Ahead of EU parliamentary elections, state-sponsored disinformation surged across France, Germany, and the Benelux region. Violence at several political demonstrations in Marseille and Berlin suggests that online extremism is transitioning into physical confrontation. Intelligence services confirmed foreign actor involvement in digital propaganda campaigns.
Governments responded by increasing cyber readiness and election monitoring. However, trust in democratic processes appears to be eroding, raising questions about institutional legitimacy and political volatility.
Outlook: Continued unrest is expected, particularly in urban centres hosting major election-related events. Disruptions to public services, media operations, and legislative processes are likely to rise.
Risk Level: Medium–High
Asia-Pacific (China, Taiwan, South China Sea)
The PLA conducted live-fire naval drills near Taiwan’s ADIZ on 14 June. Satellite imagery confirmed additional militarised infrastructure developments in the Spratly Islands. Vietnam issued strong diplomatic protests, while the Philippines conducted joint patrols with Australia and Japan in response.
Chinese assertiveness in disputed waters and airspace represents a growing strategic risk to maritime commerce and communications infrastructure. Undersea cables, which transmit over 95% of the world’s internet data, are now considered a vulnerable target.
Outlook: Persistent PLA activity will elevate insurance premiums, supply chain volatility, and digital risk to regional operations. Corporations must evaluate alternate logistics routes and build cyber redundancy.
Risk Level: Medium–High
Sub-Saharan Africa (West Africa, Central Sahel)
Cholera outbreaks in Mali and Chad have stretched already fragile health systems. At the same time, armed attacks in northern Nigeria and cross-border coordination between junta-led governments in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali point to growing regional militarisation and collapse of multilateral governance mechanisms.
Aid groups reported blockades on access routes to affected communities, while mining companies face increasing ambush threats near transportation corridors.
Outlook: Expect continued deterioration in both security and public health. Foreign staff movements should be limited, and investment in local logistics partnerships should be prioritised.
Risk Level: High
Latin America (Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil)
Argentina’s economic crisis reached new depths this week as inflation crossed 330%. Street protests in Buenos Aires and Rosario turned violent, prompting military deployments. In Ecuador, cartel-related violence in Guayaquil spiked despite a state of emergency, raising questions about law enforcement capacity and government control.
The intersection of economic dysfunction and organised crime is redefining the risk profile across several Latin American markets. Foreign investors are reassessing country risk ratings, and international NGOs are reviewing operational feasibility.
Outlook: High risk of policy instability, currency devaluation, and street-level violence. Firms should consider divesting from high-risk areas or implementing rapid mobility plans.
Risk Level: High
North America (United States)
Clashes erupted in Los Angeles after controversial ICE raids targeted migrant communities. Over 100 people were arrested, with reports of excessive force and injuries to journalists. California authorities condemned the use of National Guard troops without prior consultation, reigniting debates over federal overreach and civil liberties.
The episode underscores the fragility of domestic political cohesion in the US as the 2026 midterms approach. Businesses operating in sanctuary cities face reputational and legal exposure.
Outlook: Urban unrest is likely to spread to other major cities. Legal disputes between states and federal authorities will add uncertainty to commercial environments, especially in the legal, media, and public services sectors.
Risk Level: Medium–High
4. Key Incident Breakdown
Date | Location | Incident Type | Incident Summary | Risk Level |
13–14 June | Isfahan & Natanz, Iran | Airstrikes | Israeli jets targeted suspected nuclear and military sites; significant escalation in regional hostilities. | Very High |
14–15 June | Tel Aviv & Haifa, Israel | Missile & Drone Barrage | Iran launched retaliatory attacks on military bases and cities. | Very High |
11 June | Kharkiv, Ukraine | Missile Attack | Russian forces shelled residential zones. Civilian casualties and utility infrastructure were heavily damaged. | High |
14 June | Taiwan Strait | Naval Drills | PLA conducted live-fire drills near Taiwan ADIZ. Regional shipping and comms networks were rerouted. | Medium–High |
11–14 June | Los Angeles, USA | Civil Unrest | Protests over ICE raids escalated; National Guard involvement stirred federal-state conflict. | Medium–High |
5. Strategic Implications & Business Risk Mitigation
The convergence of geopolitical, environmental, and economic pressures requires a multi-layered response from corporate security and risk managers. Traditional risk assessments that rely solely on kinetic threat indicators are insufficient. The following structured recommendations aim to support business continuity and operational security:
Organisations operating in volatile regions should urgently review their crisis management frameworks, with particular emphasis on cross-border escalation scenarios in the Middle East and hybrid warfare in Eastern Europe. Those with logistical dependencies in East Asia and South America should reassess their reliance on single-route corridors and critical ports vulnerable to closure or sabotage.
Beyond reactive measures, there is a growing need for strategic foresight, scenario modelling that incorporates civil unrest, regulatory changes, and information warfare. Insurance portfolios should be updated to reflect not only physical risk but also cyber disruption and reputational harm, which are increasingly the by-products of political interference and civic volatility.
6. Economic Risk Outlook
This week’s economic landscape is defined by volatility across five key dimensions: inflation, supply chain disruption, energy prices, export slowdowns, and currency devaluation.
Argentina’s financial crisis continues to spiral, with annualised inflation now exceeding 330%. Traditional monetary tightening has failed to stabilise the peso, and public confidence in government controls is collapsing. Mass protests in Buenos Aires and Rosario risk escalating into long-term instability, particularly as the government leans on security forces for enforcement rather than reform.
In the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, geopolitical tensions have driven up war-risk insurance premiums, sharply impacting shipping costs. Container delays and insurance claims from regional players are expected to trickle into balance sheets over Q3 2025.
Meanwhile, China’s export contraction has begun to affect global electronics and consumer goods supply chains. Declining demand from the US and EU, coupled with internal debt concerns, are slowing China’s manufacturing recovery. Simultaneously, LNG spot prices in Europe have surged due to speculative energy market moves and summer cooling demand, particularly affecting industries in Italy and Germany.
In East Africa, climate-induced drought has kept food inflation high. This has increased the operational cost of NGO relief activities and affected the availability of basic goods for vulnerable populations.
Implications for Business:
Strategic planning should incorporate currency hedging and indexed contracts in volatile FX environments.
Firms reliant on East Asian exports should accelerate diversification and local manufacturing investment.
Those in energy-intensive industries must anticipate higher overheads linked to volatile LNG pricing and shipping delays.
7. Political & Security Risk Outlook
Multiple trends point to a deterioration in political cohesion and state legitimacy across key global regions. In the Middle East, the formalisation of conflict between Israel and Iran brings the prospect of an extended confrontation, beyond typical proxy patterns. The associated risks to global oil markets, diplomatic ties, and regional alliances should not be underestimated.
In Ukraine, simultaneous external military pressure and growing domestic unrest threaten the political fabric and societal cohesion needed to maintain resistance. International donors and partners may need to re-evaluate their engagement approach, balancing defence commitments with stabilisation initiatives.
Africa continues to see regional security partnerships weaken. The entrenchment of military juntas in the Sahel, combined with health emergencies, risks further sidelining democratic norms and regional trade cooperation.
In democratic states, the weaponisation of disinformation is becoming more operationalised. Election cycles in the EU and the US are increasingly susceptible to foreign interference and domestic distrust, contributing to polarisation and governance fragility.
Forecast:
Expect a broad continuation of civil unrest, institutional erosion, and mis/disinformation campaigns in democratic regions, while authoritarian and military regimes deepen their control. These dynamics have direct business implications ranging from operational access to regulatory unpredictability and investor confidence.
8. Health & Environmental Risk Outlook
Environmental instability and public health crises are emerging as secondary vectors of operational risk. Cholera outbreaks in Mali and Chad now threaten to spill across borders into Niger and Cameroon, overwhelming already underfunded health systems. Lack of clean water, limited access to healthcare, and damaged transport infrastructure are combining to delay relief efforts.
India and Pakistan experienced record-breaking heatwaves, with temperatures breaching 45°C. Emergency rooms in Delhi and Karachi reported intake surges. Heat-related power grid instability was recorded in rural zones, disrupting food and pharmaceutical cold chains.
Simultaneously, Brazil and the Congo Basin recorded major increases in deforestation. Agricultural degradation and climate-linked displacement are now identified by NGOs as primary triggers for emerging urban instability in peripheral settlements.
Strategic Considerations:
Multinational NGOs and humanitarian actors should coordinate cross-border response mechanisms and consider in-theatre stockpiling to reduce dependency on disrupted supply chains.
Companies with frontline operations in extreme heat zones should revise staff rotation and PPE policies to account for occupational safety standards.
Data from health surveillance platforms should be integrated into travel and operational planning tools to track outbreak trajectories.
9. Additional Resources & Expert Consultation
📩 For tailored geopolitical risk briefings, cyber threat intelligence, or red-team simulations:
Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd
Disclaimer
This document is proprietary and confidential. It is based on verified intelligence and open-source reporting from trusted and approved sources. Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd makes every effort to ensure accuracy, but assumes no liability for decisions made on the basis of this analysis. Redistribution without written consent is prohibited.
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