Weekly Global Insights Report

Geopolitical & Security Insights – Week Ending 8 June 2025

Date: 9 June 2025

Author(s): Custodia Intelligence Team

Report Reference: CIR-080625

Custodia Global Risk Management

Providing Actionable Intelligence for Business Leaders, Policymakers, and Security Professionals

1. Executive Summary

The reporting period from 2 to 8 June 2025 was marked by sustained global volatility across geopolitical, economic, and environmental domains. In the Middle East, Israeli airstrikes intensified, and ceasefire negotiations remained stalled, while Gaza’s humanitarian conditions worsened. In Eastern Europe, Russia launched its largest aerial attack since the war began, escalating regional instability. Widespread protests in Ukraine and the United States, alongside military deployments, signal rising civil unrest and political polarisation.

In Asia-Pacific, tensions flared in the South China Sea amid Chinese naval provocations, while Africa faced deepening food insecurity and militant activity. Argentina’s inflation crisis worsened, while global shipping premiums and LNG prices rose, adding pressure on energy and logistics sectors. Health risks, including disease outbreaks in Gaza and malnutrition in East Africa, add an urgent humanitarian layer to global operations.

Strategic implications for global organisations span increased insurance liability, legal exposure, and heightened supply chain fragility. Operational resilience planning should account for prolonged civil unrest, climate-related disruptions, and regional instability in both advanced and emerging markets.

2. Global Risk Overview

Across global theatres, states and non-state actors are leaning into asymmetric capabilities, including cyber, grey-zone, and psychological operations, shaping a highly unpredictable operating environment. Natural disasters and environmental pressures further intensified in Asia and Africa, raising strategic considerations for corporate and NGO operations.

Key sectors impacted this week include: logistics, energy, defence manufacturing, and media operations in conflict-affected regions.

3. Regional Risk Analysis

Middle East (MENA – Israel, Gaza, Lebanon)

Israeli airstrikes intensified following an uptick in cross-border rocket fire from southern Lebanon. Talks around a ceasefire mediated by Egypt and Qatar have stalled. The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains severe, with UN agencies warning of waterborne disease outbreaks.

Implications: Energy firms and NGOs operating in the region face heightened operational risk. Airport closures and commercial flight suspensions disrupted travel to/from Israel.

Risk Level: High

Eastern Europe (Ukraine Conflict, Russia, NATO)

On 7 June, Russia launched its largest aerial attack to date on Ukraine, deploying 206 drones, 49 guided missiles, and other projectiles. The strike killed at least four civilians and injured over 60 in Kharkiv. Ukraine claims it downed a Su‑35 and damaged multiple Iskander systems. Russia also reportedly breached the Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time since 2022, forcing mass evacuations. Ukrainian officials warn of Russia’s intent to dominate left-bank territory and sever Black Sea access by late 2026.

Implications: Logistics, defence contractors, utilities, and civilian infrastructure continue to face significant disruption. Organisational contingency planning must account for severe kinetic escalation in new oblasts.

Risk Level: High

Central & Western Europe (Political Fractures and Disinformation)

Disinformation campaigns targeting electoral integrity increased ahead of the European Parliament elections. France and Germany heightened cyber readiness.

Implications: Risk to media organisations, political institutions, and critical national infrastructure.

Risk Level: Medium-High

Asia-Pacific (China, Taiwan, South China Sea)

Chinese naval and air manoeuvres increased near Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). Vietnam protested further Chinese construction on disputed reefs in the Spratly Islands.

Implications: Risks to regional shipping, undersea cable operations, and semiconductors supply chain.

Risk Level: Medium-High

Sub-Saharan Africa (West Africa, Central Sahel)

Armed group activity surged in northern Nigeria and southern Mali. Burkina Faso’s transitional government extended military rule by another year, citing ongoing security operations.

Implications: NGOs and extractive industry assets face elevated risks of kidnapping, extortion, and armed ambush.

Risk Level: High

Latin America (Security & Economic Tensions)

In Ecuador, the government imposed a state of emergency in response to cartel-linked violence in Guayaquil. Argentina’s currency crisis deepened, prompting mass protests.

Implications: Businesses face growing challenges to operational continuity, financial stability, and staff security.

Risk Level: High

North America (US Domestic Stability)

Between 6–8 June 2025, widespread protests erupted across Los Angeles in response to ICE raids targeting multiple sites. Over 100 people were arrested, and clashes included the use of tear gas, rubber bullets, and sponge rounds. A British photojournalist was among those injured. The federal government deployed 2,000 National Guard troops without California’s consent—the first such action since 1965.

Implications: Highlights growing tensions between federal and state authority. Businesses in sanctuary cities face reputational, legal, and operational risks.

Risk Level: Medium–High

4. Key Incident Breakdown

Date	Location	Incident Type	Summary	Risk Level
3 June	Gaza Strip	Airstrikes	Israeli jets targeted Hamas tunnels and munitions depots overnight.	High
6 June	Kharkiv, Ukraine	Artillery Shelling	Russian forces shelled residential districts; 17 killed, dozens injured.	High
7 June	South China Sea	Naval Encroachment	PLAN vessels entered disputed waters near Vietnamese outposts.	Medium-High
8 June	Los Angeles, USA	Civil Unrest	Clashes between immigration protestors and National Guard units escalated.	Medium

5. Strategic Implications & Business Risk Mitigation

Organisations should:

• Enhance Crisis Preparedness: Review crisis management protocols and evacuation readiness, especially for MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Improve Threat Intelligence Integration: Deploy AI-enabled OSINT and HUMINT tools to track disinformation and tactical threat convergence.

• Adapt Supply Chain Models: Strengthen redundancies in logistics networks, with contingency partners in Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe.

• Conduct Political Scenario Modelling: Particularly relevant in Latin America and EU jurisdictions amid electoral volatility.

• Update Insurance and Legal Coverage: Evaluate existing policies for civil unrest, sabotage, and force majeure events.

6. Economic Risk Outlook

Economic conditions across multiple regions remain volatile, driven by conflict, inflation, and trade uncertainty:

• Argentina’s Currency Crisis: Inflation has surpassed 320%, fuelling widespread protests. The central bank’s interest rate hikes are unlikely to curb hyperinflation in the near term. Businesses face increased borrowing costs and contracting consumer demand.

• Global Shipping Premiums: Continued risk to shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean has driven up war-risk insurance rates, particularly affecting energy, manufacturing, and logistics sectors with supply chain exposure in the region.

• China’s Slowing Export Growth: New data showed a sharp year-on-year decline in exports, with weakening demand from Western markets. This raises red flags for global electronics and consumer goods supply chains.

• United States Monetary Policy: Fed Chair signals that interest rates will remain high through Q3 2025 due to sticky inflation in housing and services. Capital markets are bracing for reduced liquidity, impacting investment flows and business expansion plans.

• EU Energy Volatility: Rising LNG spot prices are reintroducing cost pressure for energy-intensive industries, especially in Germany and Italy. This could delay recovery in key manufacturing hubs.

• East Africa Food Inflation: Drought conditions in the Horn of Africa have led to sustained food price inflation, worsening the humanitarian outlook and increasing operational costs for NGOs and aid suppliers.

Implications for Business:

• Reassess Cost Projections: Firms should prepare for cost volatility across supply chains, energy, and materials.

• Monitor Currency Risk: Particularly in emerging markets like Argentina, Nigeria, and Turkey.

• Diversify Manufacturing Partners: Especially those dependent on Chinese exports and transport through conflict-prone maritime corridors.

• Secure Indexed Contracts: For sectors affected by commodity or shipping cost swings.

7. Political & Security Risk Outlook

Political instability intensified across several regions. In West Africa, military juntas continue to erode civil governance, prompting regional concern over long-term security cooperation and economic integration. In Ukraine, protestors clashed with National Guard units in response to continued mobilisation policies, highlighting social fatigue alongside kinetic warfare. Rising disinformation and ballot interference risks were flagged ahead of elections in the US and the EU. Meanwhile, in Israel, domestic protests related to the Gaza conflict and judicial reforms have escalated, drawing international scrutiny.

Forecast: Expect elevated civil unrest in Ukraine, Israel, and Latin America over the next 30–60 days. Increased military visibility in public spaces may further undermine civic trust and operational stability for international businesses and NGOs.

8. Health & Environmental Risk Outlook

Public Health Risks

• Gaza Strip (Waterborne Disease Surge): UN agencies continue to warn of deteriorating sanitary conditions in Gaza, with thousands at risk of cholera, hepatitis A, and other waterborne illnesses due to sewage overflow, limited potable water, and insufficient medical supplies.

• Horn of Africa (Malnutrition Crisis): Persistent drought has pushed millions into food insecurity across Somalia, Ethiopia, and parts of Kenya. Malnutrition rates, especially among children under five, remain critically high.

• India (Heatwave-Related Casualties): Northern India recorded extreme temperatures exceeding 48°C, resulting in multiple heatstroke fatalities. Hospitals reported overcrowding in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh due to heat-related illnesses.

Environmental Risks

• Bangladesh & Myanmar (Cyclone Aftermath): Cyclone Remal displaced over 800,000 people across coastal regions. Major flooding and landslides have raised the risk of long-term environmental degradation and disease outbreaks.

• China (Yellow River Pollution Event): A chemical spill from an upstream facility has contaminated parts of the Yellow River in Henan province, affecting irrigation and local water supply chains.

• South America (Amazon Deforestation Spike): New satellite imagery reveals a sharp rise in deforestation in southern Amazonas and Acre state, Brazil, threatening biodiversity and undermining Brazil’s climate commitments.

Implications for Business & NGOs

• Operational Disruption: NGOs, aid agencies, and infrastructure operators must reassess logistics, supply chain resilience, and staff medical preparedness in high-risk zones.

• Insurance & Compliance Exposure: Organisations with environmental liabilities or carbon commitments face increased scrutiny amid disaster-linked environmental degradation.

• Medical Contingency Planning: Organisations in South Asia, MENA, and Sub-Saharan Africa should pre-position critical medical assets and establish emergency health protocols.

Additional Resources & Expert Consultation

For strategic briefings or bespoke advisory:

Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd

Website: www.custodia.co.uk

Email: info@custodia.co.uk

Disclaimer

This document is confidential and intended solely for the recipient. It contains proprietary intelligence and analysis by Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd. The information within is drawn from reliable sources, but no guarantee of accuracy or timeliness is offered. Custodia disclaims all liability arising from actions taken based on this report. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.