Geopolitical & Security Insights – Week Ending 9th February 2025
Date: 10th February 2025
Author(s): Custodia Intelligence Team
Report Reference: CIR-090225
Providing Actionable Intelligence for Business Leaders, Policymakers, and Security Professionals
1. Executive Summary
Overview: This week’s developments underscore escalating geopolitical instability, rising economic risks, and growing security threats across multiple regions. In Europe, Russia has launched a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine, increasing battlefield intensity while further straining diplomatic relations between NATO allies and Moscow. In the Middle East, the Red Sea remains a focal point of security concerns, with Iranian-backed groups intensifying attacks on commercial vessels. Africa’s Sahel region is seeing a resurgence of terrorist activity, and Latin America continues to grapple with cartel expansion and political turmoil. Meanwhile, cyber threats in the Asia-Pacific region are at an all-time high, targeting both government and corporate entities.
Key Insights:
Ukraine Conflict Escalation: Russia has significantly increased missile strikes and military operations, forcing Kyiv to seek additional Western military support.
Middle East Maritime Security: Iranian-backed factions continue disrupting Red Sea trade routes, leading to increased shipping costs and supply chain bottlenecks.
Sahel Region Instability: Jihadist groups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are expanding operations, undermining regional security.
Latin American Criminal Networks: Cartels are intensifying drug trafficking, extortion, and cyber-enabled financial crimes.
Asia-Pacific Cyber Threats: State-backed cyber actors have conducted large-scale attacks on critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and defence networks.
Strategic Takeaway: Businesses and policymakers should prioritise intelligence-driven risk mitigation, reassess security frameworks, and implement supply chain contingencies to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape.
2. Global Risk Overview
Africa (Political instability and security threats)
Key Developments: Security conditions in the Sahel have worsened, with militant groups carrying out coordinated attacks against government forces and civilian targets. In Sudan, peace negotiations have stalled, increasing fears of prolonged civil conflict. Meanwhile, economic instability in Nigeria is leading to growing unrest and labour strikes.
Implications:
Rising operational costs and logistical challenges for businesses in conflict-prone areas.
Increased risk exposure for foreign workers and multinational companies.
Political uncertainty in key economies impacting investor confidence.
Forecast:
Expect a prolonged security crisis in the Sahel, with jihadist groups expanding cross-border operations. Sudan’s conflict is unlikely to de-escalate in the short term.
Risk Assessment: High
Americas (Organised crime, economic instability, and political unrest)
Key Developments: Mexico’s cartels have expanded their influence, engaging in digital extortion and cross-border drug trafficking. Argentina’s currency crisis is triggering mass protests, while Venezuela’s fragile political situation remains a source of instability.
Implications:
Corporate security risks increasing in high-crime regions.
Economic instability in Latin America threatens business continuity.
Growing financial crime risks for international investors.
Forecast:
Expect further deterioration in security conditions across Mexico and Central America, with continued cartel expansion. Economic uncertainty in Argentina will persist, creating volatility in regional markets.
Risk Assessment: High
Asia-Pacific (Cybersecurity risks, economic tensions, and regional disputes)
Key Developments:
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have escalated, with China increasing military patrols and conducting airspace incursions. Simultaneously, cyberattacks linked to state-sponsored actors have targeted critical infrastructure across Asia.
Implications:
Heightened cybersecurity threats for multinational corporations.
Rising insurance costs for trade routes in contested waters.
Growing economic fragmentation between China and Western allies.
Forecast: Expect further cyber intrusions and diplomatic tensions as China continues regional military posturing. Cyber risks will remain a top concern for financial and governmental institutions.
Risk Assessment: Medium-High
Europe & Middle East (Conflicts, economic instability, and sanctions impact)
Key Developments: Russia has launched new offensives in Ukraine, while NATO discussions on further military aid intensify. In the Middle East, Iran-backed forces continue targeting Western-aligned assets, exacerbating global trade disruptions.
Implications:
Energy markets remain volatile due to supply chain uncertainties.
Geopolitical instability continues to drive inflation and commodity price fluctuations.
Maritime security risks affect global trade flows.
Forecast: Expect more aggressive Western responses to Russian military actions. Middle Eastern instability will remain high, impacting supply chains and energy markets.
Risk Assessment: High
3. Key Incident Breakdown
This section outlines the most significant geopolitical security incidents from the past week, highlighting key risks and their potential global impact.
Date | Location | Incident Type | Summary | Risk Level |
3 Feb | Ukraine | Missile Strikes | Russia escalates airstrikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, affecting civilian populations. | High |
4 Feb | Red Sea | Maritime Security | Iranian-backed groups attack multiple commercial shipping vessels, increasing insurance premiums. | High |
5 Feb | Mexico | Cartel Violence | Armed confrontations between rival cartels disrupt trade routes and logistics hubs. | High |
6 Feb | Taiwan Strait | Military Maneuvers | Chinese naval and air force units conduct large-scale drills, heightening regional tensions. | Medium-High |
Critical Alert:
The combination of military conflicts, criminal activity, and economic security risks is intensifying disruptions to supply chains, financial markets, and corporate operations. Businesses operating in these regions should review security measures, adapt risk assessments, and consider alternative routes for trade and supply chain resilience. Cyber threats remain a persistent challenge, particularly as state-sponsored attacks on critical infrastructure increase in frequency and sophistication.
(Updated with new incidents from the past week.)
4. Strategic Implications & Business Risks
The latest developments present growing security, economic, and operational challenges for multinational businesses and investors. The following sections explore the major risk areas and mitigation strategies.
Corporate Security:
Companies with personnel in high-risk regions should enhance security training and crisis response planning to safeguard employees and assets.
The rise in cyber threats necessitates greater investment in threat intelligence, encryption, and data security.
Cartel activity and political instability in Latin America require enhanced security protocols for foreign executives.
Trade & Supply Chains:
Red Sea shipping disruptions are increasing costs and delivery times for energy, manufacturing, and agricultural exports.
Businesses should reassess logistics vulnerabilities and secure alternative routes to maintain continuity.
Ongoing sanctions and supply chain issues related to Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to drive commodity price fluctuations.
Foreign Investment & Policy:
Investors should exercise caution when engaging in high-risk markets such as Venezuela, Argentina, and parts of Africa, where political instability and economic uncertainty persist.
Geopolitical tensions between China and Western nations may influence long-term trade agreements, creating new barriers for global investment strategies.
Energy markets remain volatile due to the compounded effects of conflict-driven supply disruptions.
Mitigation Strategies:
Implement multi-layered cybersecurity defences to mitigate the risks of financial and data breaches.
Diversify investment portfolios to include stable markets with low geopolitical risk exposure.
Strengthen supply chain resilience by developing contingency plans for logistics, raw materials, and alternative trade routes.
5. Special Focus Analysis
Escalating Red Sea Attacks: Global Trade and Security Implications
Overview: The ongoing maritime attacks in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed militias continue to create severe trade disruptions, forcing shipping companies to reroute around Africa. The Red Sea, a critical global trade artery, handles nearly 12% of global shipping traffic, making it a vital concern for businesses dependent on timely cargo deliveries.
Implications:
Extended transit times have raised operational costs for businesses reliant on Middle Eastern and Asian exports.
Higher insurance costs for ships travelling through the affected regions, with war-risk premiums rising by over 200% in the past month.
Energy and commodity price volatility, as disruptions to oil shipments from the Middle East increase global fuel costs.
Forecast:
Expect continued tensions in the Red Sea, prompting military responses from Western nations and regional powers.
Supply chain pressures will persist as major shipping firms reconfigure trade routes to avoid high-risk zones.
Increased global inflationary pressures due to rising transportation costs and extended trade delays.
The Future of US-China Trade Relations Amid Cybersecurity Threats
Overview: The escalation of state-backed cyberattacks targeting US and allied nations is reshaping economic policies and trade relations. Governments are introducing stricter cybersecurity compliance measures, which will have lasting implications for technology firms and global supply chains.
Implications:
Technology firms face heightened regulatory scrutiny, with potential restrictions on international tech partnerships.
The risk of retaliatory economic sanctions between the US and China remains high, affecting long-term trade relations.
Western governments may expand cybersecurity requirements for businesses handling sensitive data, increasing compliance costs.
Forecast:
Cyber tensions between global superpowers will likely intensify, leading to new trade restrictions in the technology sector.
The shift towards digital protectionism could fragment global markets, requiring businesses to reassess international supply chains.
Greater investments in AI-driven cybersecurity solutions to defend against state-sponsored cyber threats.
Take Action Now:
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Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd
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Email: info@custodia.co.uk
Disclaimer
Confidentiality & Disclaimer Notice
This document is confidential and intended solely for the recipient. It contains proprietary intelligence and analysis by Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd. The information within is gathered from reliable sources; however, no guarantee of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness is provided. Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on this report. Redistribution, reproduction, or dissemination without written consent is strictly prohibited.
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