Weekly Global Insights Report

Geopolitical & Security Insights – Week Ending 27 April 2025

Date: 28 April 2025

Author(s): Custodia Intelligence Team

Report Reference: CIR-270425

Providing Actionable Intelligence for Business Leaders, Policymakers, and Security Professionals.

1. Executive Summary

Overview: This week has seen ongoing geopolitical volatility. Israel intensified its military operations in Gaza despite international calls for restraint. Simultaneously, Russia has launched a fresh wave of missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. Additionally, the number of cyberattacks targeting Western critical infrastructure sectors has increased markedly. The Asia-Pacific region remains tense. China is expanding coercive measures near Taiwan, while diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea strengthen.

Key Insights:

• Middle East: Israel has advanced operations into Rafah, raising humanitarian concerns as negotiations stall.

• Ukraine Conflict: Russia has escalated kinetic strikes against Kharkiv and Dnipro, disrupting civilian energy networks.

• Cybersecurity: High-profile cyberattacks against healthcare and logistics sectors in Europe and the U.S. have been observed.

• Asia-Pacific: China has conducted new air and naval incursions near Taiwan; Australia and Japan are engaging in expanded military exercises.

• Americas: Organised criminal networks in Mexico are continuing cyber extortion operations against regional logistics firms.

  
  

Strategic Takeaway: Organisations must maintain a proactive, intelligence-led approach. It’s essential to embed political, cyber, and operational risks into business continuity frameworks and leadership decision-making.

2. Global Risk Overview

The global risk landscape remains marked by escalating armed conflicts, multi-sector cyberattacks, and geopolitical realignment, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Business resilience will increasingly depend on rapid threat recognition and the ability to operationalize mitigation strategies across cyber, supply chain, and physical security domains.

3. Regional Risk Analysis

Middle East (Gaza Conflict and Regional Impact)

Key Developments:

• Israeli forces launched new operations in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, despite U.S. and EU diplomatic pressure to avoid escalation.

• Over 1.5 million internally displaced Palestinians are now concentrated around Rafah, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

  
  

Implications & Business Impact:

• Regional security risks have intensified, threatening NGO operations, energy infrastructure, and diplomatic missions.

• Increased regional instability poses shipping risks in Eastern Mediterranean corridors.

  
  

Forecast:

• Hostilities are expected to continue through May 2025 unless substantial external pressure compels negotiations.

  
  

Risk Level: High

Europe (Ukraine Conflict and NATO Dynamics)

Key Developments:

• Russian forces have intensified missile and drone attacks on Kharkiv and Dnipro, targeting power generation facilities, rail hubs, and civilian targets.

• NATO announced the rapid deployment of defensive air systems across Eastern Europe.

  
  

Implications & Business Impact:

• Disruptions to critical infrastructure in Ukraine have cascading effects on neighboring EU economies.

• Cyber-physical risks for the regional logistics and energy sectors are increasing through this turbulence.

  
  

Forecast:

• Russia is likely to continue with asymmetric strikes. It may also attempt to destabilize European unity through hybrid warfare campaigns.

  
  

Risk Level: High

Asia-Pacific (China-Taiwan Tensions & Regional Posturing)

Key Developments:

• China has launched five consecutive days of naval and air exercises near Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).

• Australia and Japan have conducted joint exercises, enhancing regional missile defense cooperation.

  
  

Implications & Business Impact:

• There is an elevated threat to semiconductor supply chains and regional shipping lanes.

• The risk of cyber threats to Asia-Pacific-based supply chains and diplomatic institutions has risen.

  
  

Forecast:

• An increased likelihood of targeted economic coercion campaigns and cyberattacks against Taiwan-aligned entities is anticipated.

  
  

Risk Level: Medium-High

Americas (Organised Crime and Cyber Threats)

Key Developments:

• Mexican cartels have continued ransomware attacks, targeting port logistics and customs systems in Veracruz and Monterrey.

• Political instability in Peru worsens due to mass protests against inflation and government corruption.

  
  

Implications & Business Impact:

• Supply chain security and cross-border trade are increasingly vulnerable to cyber and physical disruptions.

• Regulatory scrutiny of foreign investment and banking operations in Latin America is increasing.

  
  

Forecast:

• Organised crime groups are expected to expand cross-border cyber and extortion operations, especially against transport, finance, and extractive industries.

  
  

Risk Level: High

4. Key Incident Breakdown

Date	Location	Incident Type	Summary	Risk Level
21 Apr	Rafah, Gaza	Military Offensive	Israeli forces expand ground operations into Rafah amid humanitarian concerns.	High
23 Apr	Kharkiv, Ukraine	Missile Strikes	Russia targets civilian energy hubs in renewed urban attacks.	High
24 Apr	Taiwan Strait	Military Exercises	China intensifies air and naval activities around Taiwan.	Medium-High
25 Apr	Veracruz, Mexico	Cyber Extortion	Ransomware attack by cartel-linked actors disables port logistics operations.	High
26 Apr	Peru	Political Unrest	Mass protests over inflation and governance impact financial and logistics sectors.	Medium-High

5. Strategic Implications & Business Risk Mitigation

1. Cyber-Physical Risk Convergence: It is vital to enhance cybersecurity and physical protection layers across critical assets. Immediate patching cycles and access controls are crucial for supply chain resilience.

2. Geo-Political Threat Modelling: Integrate updated geopolitical risk assessments into insurance coverage reviews, travel planning, and asset deployment strategies. This is especially important in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Indo-Pacific operations.

3. Alternative Supply Chain Planning: Establish and stress-test redundancies for shipping, air cargo, and overland routes. This helps mitigate exposure to political or cyber disruptions.

4. Operational Intelligence Briefing: Maintain weekly intelligence briefings at the senior leadership level. This ensures agile decision-making aligned to regional threat forecasts.

5. Incident Response Preparedness: Regularly update regional contingency and evacuation plans. The focus should be on dual-impact threats, such as kinetic and cyber, especially for personnel operating in Gaza, Ukraine, and Latin America.

6. Expert Consultation

For bespoke risk advisory, strategic briefings, and operational resilience planning:

• Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd

• Website: www.custodia.co.uk

• Email: info@custodia.co.uk

  
  

Disclaimer

This report is confidential and intended solely for the recipient. It contains proprietary intelligence and analysis by Custodia Intelligent Resources Ltd. The information within is drawn from reliable sources; however, no guarantee of complete accuracy or timeliness is offered. Custodia disclaims liability arising from any actions taken based on this report. Redistribution without permission is prohibited.