Analysis of the Israel–Iran Conflict: A Strategic Overview

Ceasefire Status and Implications

The 2025 Israel–Iran conflict represents the most significant direct confrontation between these regional powers in decades. Traditionally marked by clandestine warfare and cyber activities, their relationship escalated dramatically in June 2025. A series of strategic miscalculations, including the assassination of a senior Iranian commander, provoked open military hostilities. The situation rapidly transformed into missile and drone exchanges, culminating in direct attacks on each other's territories.

The shift from indirect engagement to open warfare has reshaped the balance of power. Although a provisional ceasefire was brokered on 23 June 2025 by U.S. President Donald Trump, the underlying factors driving the conflict remain unresolved. This ceasefire does not extend to proxy warfare in regions like Gaza and southern Lebanon, where tensions continue to simmer.

Overview of the Conflict

This Special Report by Custodia Intelligent Resources offers a comprehensive assessment of the ongoing Israel–Iran conflict and its wide-ranging impacts. It compiles verified intelligence with operational data, aimed at assisting decision-makers in high-risk sectors, including corporate security and humanitarian logistics.

The ceasefire brokered with mediation from Qatar and Oman presents a fragile halt to hostilities. Nonetheless, military readiness remains high on both sides, and the potential for sudden escalation due to miscalculations persists. Notably, organisations must update operational plans, including evacuation strategies and intelligence-led monitoring for signs of conflict resurgence. The situation remains volatile, indicating that stability may be elusive.

Section 1 – Executive Summary

The conflict between Israel and Iran has transitioned from peak military action to a precarious ceasefire, largely due to intense diplomacy and international pressures. A brief halt was achieved through a ceasefire brokered on 23 June 2025. This agreement mandates the end of missile and drone attacks but does not cover the proxy battlefields, where risks remain high.

Recent reports indicate that the ceasefire has held firm over the past 24 hours with no violations. Nevertheless, both nations maintain a defensive military posture, with Israeli air defenses on high alert. Intelligence sources caution that a proxy resurgence could trigger renewed violence.

Entities operating in the region must emphasize scenario-based planning. The current conditions indicate a fragile status quo, and operational normalization cannot yet be assumed. Monitoring for conflict resurgence signals must remain a priority.

Section 2 – Timeline of Escalation

The Israel–Iran conflict ignited after months of tension. The assassination of Iranian General Reza Valizadeh in Damascus on 8 June 2025 acted as the catalyst. This was followed by Iranian retaliation through missile strikes on Israeli targets. Escalation continued unabated with cross-border skirmishes involving proxy actors such as Hezbollah.

As tensions surged, U.S. military assets engaged in limited strikes to protect regional interests. A temporary ceasefire was declared on 23 June but remains precarious. Although both parties have shown some restraint, the risk of renewed confrontation persists, fundamentally maintaining a high-stakes environment.

Section 3 – Current Situation

As of 29 June 2025, the ceasefire is in effect and has shown signs of stabilizing. There have been no confirmed ceasefire violations, marking a significant change in operational tempo. This stability offers a window for humanitarian access and diplomatic engagement. However, military readiness remains elevated across the region.

Despite the ceasefire, credible threats abound. Iranian proxies retain operational readiness, and direct communications between Tehran and Jerusalem remain minimal. Cyber operations continue aggressively, presenting additional layers of conflict.

Humanitarian access has improved slightly, with limited aid movements occurring in Gaza. However, logistical challenges and security issues continue to impede relief efforts. Reports indicate ongoing struggles related to healthcare access and fuel shortages.

Organisations in the area should treat this temporary stabilization as a critical period for operational planning and risk mitigation.

Section 4 – Geopolitical Dynamics

The ceasefire initiated on 23 June 2025 marks a pivotal moment in the Israel–Iran relationship. However, deep-seated geopolitical drivers persist. Each nation continues to prioritize its strategic objectives, creating a dynamic landscape of tension and potential conflict.

Israel's strategic goals revolve around curbing Iran's nuclear capabilities, while Tehran remains intent on maintaining its influence in the region. The incomplete resolution of underlying grievances keeps the risk of escalation palpable.

The U.S. maintains a strong military presence, enforcing deterrence strategies to prevent direct engagement. This ongoing military readiness may foster an environment where strategic miscalculations could trigger conflict.

Section 5 – Risk Forecasting

The current ceasefire holds the potential for a fragile peace. However, several scenarios could unfold over the next few weeks.

• Scenario 1: Sustained Ceasefire with Increased Military Posturing

Likelihood: Moderate to High

Description: The ceasefire holds but military postures remain tense. Proxy groups are on standby, and cyber operations persist.

• Scenario 2: Proxy-Led Escalation

Likelihood: Moderate

Description: Iranian proxies launch attacks against Israeli or U.S. targets, leading to immediate retaliation from Israel.

• Scenario 3: Strategic Miscalculation

Likelihood: Moderate to Low

Description: Misunderstandings lead to direct military engagement between Israeli and Iranian forces.

• Scenario 4: Structured Diplomacy Leading to De-escalation

Likelihood: Low

Description: The situation leads to sustained diplomatic negotiations and potential reductions in hostilities.

Organisations must remain aware of potential risks and be prepared for sudden changes in the operational environment.

Section 6 – The Threat Matrix

Following the ceasefire, the strategic threat environment remains fluid. While state-to-state hostilities may have paused, the motivations for conflict remain. Intelligence assessments highlight various threats, including cyber-attacks and the influence of militant networks.

The current state of humanitarian needs, compounded by previous infrastructure destruction, indicates an ongoing crisis in affected areas. Medical access remains compromised in places like Gaza, stressing the need for comprehensive operational plans.

Organisations should prepare for a range of threats, maintaining flexibility in response protocols and monitoring evolving risks.

Section 7 – Sectoral Impacts

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has injected a degree of uncertainty across several critical sectors. Each sector must adapt tightly to the situation while remaining vigilant against potential escalations.

Media have resumed coverage under restrictive conditions, facing heightened surveillance and restrictions.

Humanitarian Operations have cautiously restarted in select areas but still face significant barriers.

Corporate Entities are exposed to heightened risks, necessitating careful risk assessments and scenario planning.

Diplomatic Missions are maintaining reduced operational capabilities to navigate ongoing tensions.

Aviation and Logistics remain disrupted, with ongoing threats endangering air and maritime operations.

Given the dynamic environment, sectors must remain proactive in risk management, leveraging resources wisely and maintaining crisis preparedness.

Section 8 – Economic Outlook

The ceasefire has temporarily stabilized some economic markets, but uncertainty looms. While oil prices have stabilized, the Iranian economy continues to struggle under sanctions.

Regional economies are feeling the ripple effects, with many countries facing economic pressures linked to the crisis. International businesses must reassess their operations and prepare for potential market volatility.

Continued risk exposure mapping and business continuity planning are essential for organisations operating in or adjacent to these conflict zones.

Section 9 – Political and Security Risks

The regional dynamics remain intricate, characterized by unresolved tensions and the presence of proxy forces. The United States is reinforcing deterrent capabilities, aware that proxy actors may stir renewed conflict.

While recent diplomatic efforts have garnered some support, concrete resolutions remain elusive. The ongoing state of readiness among militant groups suggests that volatility is far from over.

Section 10 – Conclusion and Recommendations

The ceasefire offers a momentary reprieve from conflict but does not resolve the deeper issues at hand. Organisations must leverage this pause for reassessment and preparation.

Recommended steps include:

• Reviewing crisis protocols and communication channels.

• Validating monitoring systems for emerging threats.

• Conducting comprehensive after-action reviews.

  
  

For humanitarian organisations, negotiating access and preparing to deploy staff is crucial. Media teams should reassess security measures, while private sector actors must plan for continuity in a hazardous environment.

In conclusion, while the ceasefire represents tactical relief, it is far from a strategic resolution. The potential for renewed conflict necessitates ongoing vigilance and preparedness.

Custodia Intelligent Resources is dedicated to providing insights and support during this complex and evolving landscape.

Section 11 – Client Services

Custodia Intelligent Resources remains committed to assisting clients through the evolving threat landscape. Our service offerings are designed to ensure strategic foresight and operational agility.

1. Global Risk Advisory

• Daily updates on regional threats and conflict monitoring.

• Support for safe access to conflict zones.

  
  

2. Operational Preparedness & Training

• Scenario planning workshops tailored to current risks.

• Development of crisis management frameworks.

  
  

3. Protective Operations & Support

• Real-time evacuation planning and execution.

• Vetting of safe accommodations.

  
  

4. Crisis Response & Medical Resilience

• Integrated medical response planning.

• Coordination of aid convoys and medical support.

  
  

Organisations can contact our response team for assistance at ops@custodia.co.uk.

Section 12 – Disclaimer

Report Date: 29 June 2025

Report Reference: CSR-290625

Produced by: Custodia Intelligent Resources

This document is for the exclusive use of authorised personnel within client organisations. It contains sensitive operational insights not intended for redistribution.

Custodia Intelligent Resources prioritises accuracy, yet the geopolitical landscape remains fluid. Continuous engagement and real-time monitoring are essential for effective operational planning.