Global Risk Update: Key Global Developments

Global Risk Update 0014 – March 29, 2025

Custodia Global Risk Management 29th March

Executive Summary

The global security environment remains highly volatile, with multiple concurrent crises and emerging threats across key regions. Strategic flashpoints are intensifying in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, while a catastrophic earthquake in Myanmar has triggered a humanitarian emergency with cross-border implications. A critical cyber breach in Australia highlights growing vulnerabilities in essential infrastructure. Structural economic reform efforts in Lebanon indicate a potential financial realignment in the Levant. Collectively, these developments reinforce the necessity for enhanced situational awareness, agile response capabilities, and scenario-based contingency planning

Thematic Risk Trends and Global Risk Themes – March 2025

• Geopolitical Instability: State-aligned non-state actors (e.g. Houthis) and conventional powers (e.g. Russia) continue to escalate regional tensions and asymmetric warfare.

• Cyber Resilience Gaps: Cyberattacks targeting essential services (e.g. 13cabs in Australia) reflect critical exposure across public infrastructure sectors.

• Humanitarian Fragility: The Myanmar earthquake underscores the importance of disaster readiness in politically unstable regions, where aid access is often constrained.

• Economic Realignment: Lebanon’s fiscal reform efforts indicate attempts at macroeconomic stabilisation amid mounting social and political unrest.

Regional Security and Risk Intelligence – March 29, 2025

• MENA Conflict: Israel’s renewed operations in Gaza and Beirut, and Houthi threats to maritime routes, continue to destabilise the region.

• Asia-Pacific Crisis: Myanmar’s 7.7 magnitude earthquake has caused severe casualties and disrupted cross-border supply chains.

• Cyber Threats: A major data breach at 13cabs in Australia exposes the transport sector’s vulnerability.

• Eastern Europe Escalation: Ukraine’s drone strike on Moscow raises the threshold of kinetic engagement on Russian soil.

• Levant Finance Risk: Lebanon appoints a new Central Bank Governor in response to financial instability and inflation.

• European Security: UK launches ‘Most Wanted’ list for people smugglers, signalling increased pressure on trafficking networks.

Myanmar Earthquake - Source USGS - Google Earth

Risk Level Assessment Matrix

Category	Region	Threat Summary	Likelihood	Impact	Score (L×I)	Trend	Controls	Priority	Risk Level
Natural Disaster	Asia-Pacific	Myanmar earthquake; regional humanitarian crisis	5	5	25	↑	Moderate	Immediate	⚫ Critical
Conflict	MENA	Gaza and Beirut strikes; Houthi missile threats to Israel and Red Sea shipping	5	4	20	↑	Weak	Immediate	⚫ Critical
Cyber & InfoSec	Australasia	13cabs data breach exposes transport sector vulnerability	4	4	16	↑	Weak	Short-term	⚫ Critical
Geopolitical	Eastern Europe	Ukraine drone strike on Moscow; Arctic tensions	4	4	16	↑	Moderate	Short-term	⚫ Critical
Finance	Levant	Lebanon appoints new Central Bank Governor amid economic instability	3	4	12	→	Weak	Monitor	🔴 High
Crime	Europe	UK targets people smuggling with 'Most Wanted' crackdown	3	3	9	→	Moderate	Monitor	🟠 Moderate

Risk Level Definitions

• 🟢 Low (1–5) – Minimal concern, ongoing monitoring

• 🟠 Moderate (6–10) – Monitor and prepare contingency measures

• 🔴 High (11–15) – Proactive risk mitigation advised

• ⚫ Critical (16–25) – Immediate strategic response required

Strategic Security Actions and Risk Mitigation for March 29, 2025

• Cyber Resilience Across Civil Systems: In light of the 13cabs breach, entities operating critical public services (transport, health, utilities) should enhance multi-layered cyber defences, ensure audit compliance, and invest in real-time threat detection tools.

• Red Sea & Levant Maritime Risk Controls: Companies with logistics or energy interests in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean should implement vessel rerouting strategies, review maritime insurance terms, and update threat intelligence protocols in response to Houthi threats and Israeli naval deployments.

• Humanitarian Coordination & Deployment Readiness: International NGOs, multilateral agencies, and logistics providers should prepare for large-scale mobilisation in response to the Myanmar earthquake, with surge capacity and border transit logistics as immediate priorities.

• Monetary Risk Monitoring in the Levant: Financial institutions and regional investors should closely monitor Lebanon’s Central Bank reform trajectory. Risk modelling should account for ongoing currency instability, informal market activity, and political volatility affecting regulatory outcomes.

• Conflict Monitoring in Eastern Europe and MENA: Security teams should increase monitoring of kinetic and asymmetric conflict indicators in Ukraine and Gaza. Contingency plans for personnel safety, supply chain resilience, and regional escalation scenarios should be updated accordingly.

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Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only. Custodia does not accept liability for operational or strategic decisions made based on this document. Third-party source accuracy is not guaranteed. Always verify data before deployment.